Key Takeaways
- Escaped Nazi occupation as a teenager in Hungary
- Developed "Reflexivity Theory" — markets shape reality, not just reflect it
- Shorted the British Pound with a $10 billion position
- Made $1 billion profit in a single day
- Forced the Bank of England to withdraw from the ERM
The Survivor Who Learned to See the Future
George Soros wasn't born wealthy. He was born in 1930 in Budapest, Hungary — right as the world was descending into chaos.
When the Nazis invaded in 1944, 13-year-old György Schwartz (his birth name) had to hide his Jewish identity to survive. His father, a POW survivor from World War I, knew how to navigate danger. He obtained false papers for the entire family.
While other families hesitated, Tivadar Soros taught his son a lesson that would shape his entire trading philosophy: When survival is at stake, act decisively. Waiting for certainty can kill you.
"The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around, and the bigger the upside."
— George Soros
After the war, Soros emigrated to England with nothing. He worked as a railway porter and a waiter while studying at the London School of Economics. There, he discovered philosophy — particularly the work of Karl Popper — which would later become the foundation of his trading strategy.
The Theory That Changed Everything
While other traders studied charts and earnings reports, Soros developed something different: The Theory of Reflexivity.
Most people believe markets reflect reality. Soros believed something radical:
Two-Way Street
Markets don't just reflect reality — they SHAPE it
Perception = Reality
What people believe affects what actually happens
Find the Flaws
Look for beliefs that are about to be proven wrong
In simple terms: If everyone believes something that isn't true, Soros would bet against them. And when reality caught up with the false belief, he would make a fortune.
"Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux, and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected."
— George Soros
He moved to New York in 1956 and started applying his philosophy to real trades. By 1969, he was running his own hedge fund. But his biggest moment was still decades away.
The Setup: Britain's Fatal Flaw
To understand the greatest trade in history, you need to understand the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM).
In the early 1990s, European countries agreed to keep their currencies within fixed ranges against each other. Britain joined in 1990, promising to keep the pound between 2.78 and 3.13 German marks.
There was just one problem: Britain couldn't afford to keep this promise.
The Impossible Promise
Britain's economy was struggling while Germany's was strong. To keep the pound high, Britain had to raise interest rates — crushing their own economy. Soros saw this was unsustainable.
Britain was in recession. Unemployment was rising. The government needed low interest rates to stimulate the economy. But to defend the pound, they needed high interest rates.
Soros saw the contradiction. The British government was making a promise it couldn't keep. And when they broke that promise, the pound would collapse.
Soros's Insight
"The Bank of England was fighting the markets. But the markets are bigger than any central bank."
The Attack Begins
In September 1992, Soros and his team at Quantum Fund began building a massive position against the pound.
But it wasn't just any position. Stanley Druckenmiller, Soros's right-hand man, came to him with the idea. He wanted to short $1.5 billion worth of pounds.
Soros's response was legendary:
"That sounds like a lot. But when you're right, you can't be big enough. Go for the jugular."
— George Soros to Stanley Druckenmiller
They didn't short $1.5 billion. They shorted $10 billion.
Other hedge funds saw what Soros was doing and piled on. The selling pressure on the pound became overwhelming.
Black Wednesday: The Day Britain Lost
September 16, 1992. A date that would live in British financial infamy.
As the pound came under attack, the Bank of England panicked. At 11:00 AM, they raised interest rates from 10% to 12%. It didn't work — the pound kept falling.
At 2:15 PM, they raised rates again to 15%. A desperate, unprecedented move. The markets didn't care. Traders kept selling.
First Rate Hike
Bank of England raises rates from 10% to 12%. Markets shrug it off.
Desperation
Rates raised to 15% — the highest in decades. Still not enough.
Surrender
Britain withdraws from the ERM. The pound collapses 15%.
£3.3 Billion
Lost by British taxpayers trying to defend the indefensible.
At 7:30 PM, the British government gave up. They withdrew from the ERM. The pound went into freefall, dropping 15% against the German mark.
George Soros had just made over $1 billion in a single day. Some estimates put his total profit from the pound trade at $2 billion over the following weeks.
"I'm only rich because I know when I'm wrong. I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes."
— George Soros
Soros's Trading Philosophy
Soros's success wasn't about charts or formulas. It was about understanding human psychology and institutional behavior:
Find the Flaw
Look for situations where popular belief contradicts reality. That's where the opportunity hides.
Go Big When Right
When your thesis is correct, position sizing matters more than entry price. Maximum conviction = maximum size.
Survive to Fight
Being wrong is inevitable. The key is recognizing mistakes quickly and cutting losses before they become fatal.
Embrace Uncertainty
No one knows the future. The best you can do is develop a thesis, bet on it, and adapt as reality unfolds.
The Aftermath
Black Wednesday made Soros world-famous — and deeply controversial. The British tabloids called him "the man who broke the Bank of England." Some saw him as a villain who profited from Britain's pain.
But economists later argued that Soros actually helped Britain. Freed from the ERM straitjacket, the British economy recovered quickly. The lower pound boosted exports, and the government could finally cut interest rates.
Sometimes, the market is smarter than the policymakers. Soros just helped reality arrive faster.
Soros went on to attack other currencies. In 1997, he was blamed for contributing to the Asian Financial Crisis. In 1998, he lost $2 billion betting against the Russian ruble. Win or lose, his philosophy remained the same:
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong."
— George Soros
Lessons from the Man Who Broke the Bank
George Soros's story isn't about currency trading. It's about having the courage to act on your convictions.
He survived Nazi occupation by adapting quickly. He escaped communist Hungary with nothing. He built a fortune by seeing what others couldn't — or wouldn't — see.
Today, Soros is one of history's most successful investors, with a net worth of over $6.7 billion (after giving away more than $32 billion to charity).